Wired is closing on Cape Brett with 12 nautical miles to go, and at her current pace Rob Bassett and Brett Russell's TP52 should be first into Russell by mid-morning. Two multihulls are giving chase. Erle Williams' catamaran Apache was 15.4 miles out at 6.30am, with Dougall Love's Rapido 60 trimaran Romanza a mile further back.
For the rest of the PIC Coastal Classic fleet, the 2pm cut-off is the real opponent. On our latest numbers, between 10 and 24 racing boats will reach Russell in time. Thirty-eight have already retired.
At 8.30 on Friday night we'd have given you long odds on even three finishers.
How we worked it out
We take each boat's distance to the finish from the PredictWind tracker and divide it by the hours left. That gives the average speed she has to hold to beat the cut-off.
Next comes the wind. We read hourly forecasts from two models, PredictWind's own PWE and the GFS global model, at the two spots the fleet is working through: off Tutukākā and off Cape Brett. If they agree, we take the number. If they don't, we carry both.
Then we check the forecast against the boats. Each run, we compare what the models promised with what the fleet actually made good since the previous look, and when the boats beat the models, we go with the boats.
We also check against the race's radio scheds. Every boat must call in at Flat Rock, Sail Rock and Cape Brett, and the scheds record who has pulled out. Retired boat trackers can keep running throwing the model, so this information is useful.
The seven rally entries aren't racing the clock, so they're left out.
A long night of recalculating
We first ran the numbers at 7.40pm on Friday. They made grim reading. The main pack was 76 to 93 miles from Russell in four knots of breeze, and between two looks at the tracker Alegre, Blue Dude, Buoy Racer and Boogie Flash all lost ground. The only boats on course to finish turned out to be rally entries.
An hour later, with the rally boats set aside, both models showed a hole off the Tutukākā coast from 2am to 9am. Our best guess was two or three finishers: Romanza, Wired and perhaps Apache.
The leaders missed the hole. By 4.55am Wired had covered 51 miles in eight and a half hours, better than six knots towards the finish, and Romanza and Alegre weren't far off that. The boats behind them weren't so lucky. Yachts that rounded Sail Rock a quarter of an hour after the main pack are now 10 to 15 miles further back.
The breeze that decides it
Both models agree on two or three knots until about 10am. Then they part company. GFS builds the northerly to nine knots by midday and 13 by 2pm. PWE is slower to fill, reaching eight knots only as racing stops. Off Cape Brett the readings sit within a knot of these all morning.
Treat the forecasts as a floor, though. In the hour to 6.30am the leaders made two and a half to four and a half knots towards Russell in a forecast of two or three knots of wind. Parts of the back of the fleet did better still.
Who gets in
With seven and a half hours left, a typical keelboat has about 20 to 25 miles in her before 2pm if PWE is right, and 23 to 30 if GFS is right. The table sets the racing fleet against those figures, using distances to finish at 6.30am.
| Our call | Needs to average | Boats and miles to go |
|---|---|---|
| Very likely | Under 2.8 knots | Wired 12.3, Apache 15.4, Romanza 16.6, Blue Dude 18.2, General Lee 19.4, Alegre 20.2, Revs 20.2 |
| Likely either way | 3.1 to 3.3 knots | Nosaka 23.2, Perfect Storm 23.6, Drinks Trolley 24.6 |
| Needs GFS to be right | 3.5 to 3.9 knots | Motorboat II 26.1, Physical Favours 26.8, Savante 26.9, Wasted Away 26.9, Blackout 27.0, Zealous 27.1, Higher Ground 27.2, Boogie Flash 27.4, Charmonet 27.9, Ticketty Boo 27.9, Mustang Sally 28.0, Katana 28.8, Power Play 29.0, Bizzarre (tracker down) |
| Outside chance | 4.1 to 4.3 knots | T-Rex 31.1, Nirvana 31.9 |
| Unlikely | 5.1 knots and up | Surreal 38.4, Buoy Racer 40.0, Pahi 40.1, Wasabi 40.3, Young Mischief 41.1, Visage 41.6, Rumpus 42.0, Waka Huia 43.9, Hot Property 46.9, Sarau 48.7 |
Bizzarre's tracker has been dead all night, but she called in at Sail Rock at 11pm, five minutes after Higher Ground, so she sits with that group.
Keep an eye on the tail of the fleet. Surreal made seven miles in the hour to 6.30am, and Katana and Power Play better than six. If that breeze holds, a boat or two from the unlikely group could yet sneak in.
Becalmed and beaten: 38 boats bow out
The light air has taken a heavy toll. Explore Racing was first out at 2.59pm on Friday, and Itchy Feet, Camellia, Levity, Clockwork, The Black Pearl, Antaeus, Pipi, Hotdogger, Daytripper, Excalibur, Memphis and Second Nature followed before 5.30pm.
The evening exodus, as the breeze died north of Kawau, took Ichiban, Motorboat III, Equilibrium, Diablo, Satisfaction, Coppelstock, Marisa, C McGuire, Winslow, La Camargue, Radio Active, Pinta, Force Eleven, Bullistic and Motorboat. Ilex, Paddy Wagon, Questa, Smokey and Cest la Vie went before midnight, and Freedom and First Priority in the small hours. Another Duchess, Niksen and Red Baron are out too, Niksen for lack of wind.
That makes 38 retirements from the racing fleet. Rattle N Rum withdrew before the start, and the rally entry Tintin pulled out on Friday afternoon.
What to watch this morning
Wired should be the first to call in scheds at Cape Brett, probably within the hour, and the gap back to Apache and Romanza at the Cape will tell us whether the multihulls can catch her before the finish.
The 11am numbers off Tutukākā will settle the rest. More than six knots by then and the GFS modelling looks more accurate, bringing the middle of the fleet into play. Under four knots, and a dozen finishers looks closer to the mark. Once round Cape Brett, boats should have a reach into Russell on the northerly, while those still south of it face a beat.
A word on the numbers
The PredictWind tracker runs on crews' phones, and a retired boat's tracker keeps transmitting. Several boats appear more than once, and General Lee has two tracks, of which we use the one that matches her pace.
The forecasts run on a 50-kilometre grid, coarse enough to miss the land and sea breezes a light-air race turns on. This is our projection only. Line and handicap results come from the race office.
Follow the fleet on the live tracker, and read how the breeze died on Friday evening in Coastal Classic grinds to a halt.
